Scientists predict post-wildfire erosion risks

It's nearly impossible to predict when and where the next major wildfire will be and whether an ill-timed thunderstorm could result in tons of ash and charred debris being washed down the bare mountainsides once the flames are out. But scientists working in New Mexico have developed a new method for sizing up which chunks of overgrown forest are most at risk of burning and sending waves of debris toward communities and into key areas that provide sources of drinking water. The research by the U.S. Geological Survey and The Nature Conservancy focuses on a pair of mountain ranges bordering New Mexico's most populated area, but the scientists said their method can be applied to landscapes around the West. "It takes it up a notch," Anne Tillery, a USGS scientist in Albuquerque, said of land managers' ability to make predictions with the new method. The work by Tillery and her colleagues marks the first time scientists have brought together various computer modeling tools for predicting burn probabilities and fire behavior. They combined that with surveys calculating the steepness of the terrain and the density of pinon, juniper and other trees throughout the Sandia and Manzano mountains to get a good idea of what might make for post-fire flooding hotspots...more