Wednesday, November 05, 2014

Dancing to the El Niño shuffle

Weather has got to rank as one of the hot topics of conversation when farmers communicate with their neighbors. After all, like Will Rogers often reminded us, "farming goes as the weather goes." But beyond that, perhaps our pre-occupation with discussing the weather so much is because weather is fickle, plain and simple, meaning ever-changing and unpredictable, even by the best forecasters. But Dave DuBois, a New Mexico State University (NMSU) climatologist, says the current and often conflicting dialogue about the on-again, off-again chances of an El Niño event this winter may be the result of over thinking the issue. While NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasters are still giving a 67 percent chance of development for an El Niño this winter, most agree it could well be a late and weak system. But DuBois says significant rains over the last 60 days could be a good indication that the climate is trending more toward favorable conditions for an El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO event, that should bring wetter and colder conditions to parts of the Southwest. He says El Niño may require a month or more to develop and unleash its full effect, but he points to the return of more normal rainfall totals in recent weeks to much of New Mexico and parts of Texas as a possible prelude to what may yet be coming. While rainfall amounts very greatly from block to block and farm to farm, so far this fall many areas of New Mexico have fared extremely well in terms of the amount of rain accumulated. In Las Cruces, for example, as much as 90 percent of the city's annual average rain total has fallen this year already. According to rain gauges at NMSU, nearly 100 percent of the annual average has been realized at that location. DuBois and Texas State Climatologist Dr. John Nielson-Gammon agree that if and when an El Niño forms this winter, chances are good it will be a weak system. But DuBois says that doesn't mean it won't have a positive impact on weather in the Southwest...more

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