OPINION/COMMENTARY

Waking Up to Kyoto

On 15 July 2004 the European Environment Agency (EEA) released the following statement: "EU15 greenhouse gas emissions decline after two years of increases." The news release explained that in 2002 the EU15's emissions were 0.5 percent lower than the year before. It may look like a small step: under the Kyoto Protocol, which takes effect this week, the continent is committed to reducing its emissions by 8 percent from 1990 levels by 2008-2012 . Thus, the EEA argues, "assuming the 8 percent reduction were to follow a linear path, emissions should have fallen 4.8 percent by 2002," vis-à-vis the actual data of the EU15 being just 2.9 percent below the reference year. The problem is complicated by two facts. First, the emission cut is more modest if you look only at carbon dioxide, the leading greenhouse gas, which accounts for over four-fifths of total emissions. In 2002 CO2 dropped by just 0.3 percent below 2001 levels. And it is still 1.4 percent higher than in 1990, "largely because of growing emissions from road transport." Secondly, the EEA recognizes that "on this basis, only four countries are on track to comply with the national targets." They are France, Germany, Sweden, and United Kingdom. At least three of them enjoy such a situation because of past actions that have nothing to do with the Kyoto Protocol. Moreover, this trend is likely to be reversed in the next few years. In fact, France is a low emitter because some 80 percent of its electricity is generated by nuclear plants....