Just Two Percent of NY Gun Owners Moving to PA Can Change Presidential Elections

For gun owners, New York has gone from bad to significantly worse since NYSRPA v. Bruen, as the state has passed and continues to pass numerous laws that further infringe on our right to keep and bear arms. New York borders states that have significantly better gun laws, including Pennsylvania, the state that it shares its longest border (~225 miles) with. Along that border lie 10 out of New York State’s 62 counties.

Pennsylvania has been a crucial Swing State for the past 2 presidential elections. Trump carried it in 2016 with a mere 44,292 votes, a tight 0.72% margin. In 2020, Biden carried it with 80,555 votes, a 1.17% margin. Assuming the victory margin from 2020 holds for future elections and all other demographic factors remain unchanged, it would take just over 80,555 committed Second Amendment voters moving from New York to Pennsylvania to swing presidential elections in favor of the Second Amendment...more

The author lists two reasons why a pro-second amendment presidential victory is important:

The broad outlines of how a pro-Second Amendment presidential victory would help are obvious. First and foremost, the President gets to nominate the Director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. The current Director of the agency, Steve Dettelbach, has been an outspoken opponent of gun rights. He has weaponized the agency in several ways. In its day-to-day function, Dettelbach has changed the focus of the ATF to harass ordinary Federal Firearms Licensees (FFLs) using its new “Zero Tolerance” policy. Under his watch, the ATF has usurped the legislative powers of Congress by passing regulations that are de facto laws: the Frame or Receiver rule, the Pistol Brace rule, and the latest “Engaged in the Business” rule.

The second biggest impact will come from appointments to the federal judiciary. As anti-Second Amendment states pass more gun control laws, and as the ATF passes newfangled rules, they will be challenged in the federal (and state) Courts by gun rights activists. This is where presidential nominations and appointments to the federal judiciary will have a serious impact.