Republican Free-Fall With Rural Voters

It was a poll of rural voters conducted by the Democratic firm Greenberg, Quinlan Rosner in consultation with the Republican media firm Greener and Hook for the Center for Rural Strategies. The results were dramatic and they weren’t good for the Republican Party entering the 2008 elections. Rural communities have been the bedrock of Republican victories nationwide in recent years. In 2004, President Bush carried rural America by a 19-point margin. Republicans won the congressional vote in rural areas in 2004 by a 10-point margin. In 2006 rural America moved away from the Republicans, splitting the votes almost evenly in congressional races (51 percent for Republican candidates and 48 percent for Democratic candidates. The new poll shows that trend away from Republicans continuing. According to recent polling data, rural voters favor a generic Democratic candidate for president by a margin of 46 percent to 43 percent. Further, rural voters favor Democratic candidates for Congress by 46 percent to 44 percent in named trial heats (the incumbent of whichever party is pitted against a generic foe of the other party). Even more discouraging for Republicans was that President Bush’s 2004 approval rating of 54-43 percent fell to 44-52 percent even though rural voters still identify themselves as “conservative” when asked about their political philosophy. In other words, Republicans are in free-fall in areas they must win in order to have a chance in 2008 presidential and congressional races. Democrats win inner city areas, some of the suburbs are competitive and Republicans must hold the rural parts of the country by a significant margin to be in the ballgame....