La Niña predictions stir up drought fear

An unwanted visitor has made her way to the border region. Continuing this winter and into the spring, a moderate-to-strong La Niña is predicted to reign across most of the United States. This natural cycle, brought about by cooler temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, has historically meant lower-than-average precipitation for the Southwest. “The Pacific jet stream is weaker, and it’s pushed a little north, so the winter storms that form in the Pacific Ocean get pulled north of us and we are drier,” said Zack Guido, associate staff scientist with Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), a program at the University of Arizona Institute for the Environment. La Niña could mean bad news for parts of Arizona and northern Mexico, where most of the last 10 years have been dry, leaving water levels dangerously low. In an effort to “improve the region’s ability to respond sufficiently and appropriately to climatic events and climate changes,” -CLIMAS will debut the La Niña Drought Tracker in early December. The monthly online publication will provide information on current and future drought conditions to ranchers, water managers, wildlife managers and others who could be affected by La Niña. “The major impact of the La Niña will likely be the expansion of drought,” Guido said. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the exacerbation of drought conditions will also put the Southwest at risk of above-normal wildfire conditions in coming months...more