That’s the word from the US Global Change Research Program, which just released its third overview of climate change impacts and projections across the nation.
Broken down into regions, the National Climate Assessment offers some key messages for the Southwest, which includes 56 million people in Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, Utah and New Mexico:
- Snowpack and streamflow amounts are projected to decline. This will affect cities, farms and ecosystems.
- Irrigation-dependent farms are vulnerable to declining surface water supplies and crops are vulnerable to extremes of moisture, cold and heat. The report’s authors note that as temperatures and competition for water increase—and crop yields decrease—rural communities will lose jobs.
- Thanks to warmer temperatures, drought and insect outbreaks, the region is already experiencing more wildfires. Between 1970 and 2003, the burn area of the West’s mid-elevation conifer forests—such as those in the Jemez Mountains—have increased by 650 percent. And between 1984 and 2008 wildfire and bark beetles killed trees across 20 percent of New Mexico and Arizona’s forests. And this is only the beginning: Models predict more wildfires and increased risk to Southwestern communities.
- The continued rise in regional temperatures will threaten public health in the region’s cities. The report’s authors add that “disruptions to urban electricity and water supplies will exacerbate these health problems.” Heat stress can kill people, especially elderly residents, but it also aggravates respiratory and heart problems.
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