Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Here’s what’s in the phase one China trade deal Trump is signing this week

U.S. and China trade representatives will end years of intense bilateral negotiations with a “phase one” deal on Wednesday that promises billions of dollars’ worth of agricultural purchases and the beginning of reforms to China’s longstanding practice of forced technology transfer. For all the pomp and circumstance expected at the signing ceremony — and repeated assurances from American negotiators — many are still unsure of exactly what the two nations are agreeing to. On paper, the deal includes a “dramatic expansion of U.S. food, agriculture and seafood product exports” as well as an agreement by China to end its long-standing practice of forcing or pressuring foreign companies to transfer their technologies to Chinese companies, according to a U.S. Trade Representative document. The USTR has also said the deal reiterates U.S. opposition to currency manipulation and a commitment by China to buy at least $200 billion in U.S. exports over two years including manufactured goods, food, agricultural, energy products and services. Estimates of the value of goods by industry the White House believes Beijing will buy include about $80 billion in manufactured goods, $53 billion in energy, $32 billion in agriculture and $35 billion in services. For Don Roose, president of Des Moines, Iowa-based brokerage U.S. Commodities, China’s commitments to farm purchases are key. “We’re anticipating $35 billion [of farm purchases] the first year and $40 billion in the second,” he said. “It doesn’t look like we’re creating any new world demand.” But unresolved, Roose said, is whether the Chinese will — after years of haggling — actually end up buying more U.S. farm goods than before President Donald Trump opened the trade spat nearly two years ago. Still, Roose said he was slightly more optimistic with a phase one deal nearly signed...MORE

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