EDITORIAL: The Covid Age Penalty

By now it’s clear that people older than 65 are the most vulnerable to the novel coronavirus, and the age penalty is especially severe for the elderly with underlying health conditions. This is a tragedy in lives cut short, but it also means that states and cities should be able to lift their lockdowns safely if they focus on protecting vulnerable Americans.
About 80% of Americans who have died of Covid-19 are older than 65, and the median age is 80. A review by Stanford medical professor John Ioannidis last month found that individuals under age 65 accounted for 4.8% to 9.3% of all Covid-19 deaths in 10 European countries and 7.8% to 23.9% in 12 U.S. locations.
For most people under the age of 65, the study found, the risk of dying from Covid-19 isn’t much higher than from getting in a car accident driving to work. In California and Florida, the fatality risk for the under-65 crowd is about equal to driving 16 to 17 miles per day. While higher in hot spots like New York (668 miles) and New Jersey (572 miles), the death risk is still lower than the public perceives.
The risk climbs especially for those over age 80. According to the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity, Americans over 85 are about 2.75 times more likely to die from Covid-19 than those 75 to 84, seven times more likely than those 65 to 74 and 16.8 times more than those 55 to 64.
Fatality rate comparisons between Covid-19 and the flu are inapt because they affect populations differently. Children under age 14 are between 6.8 and 17 times less likely to die of Covid-19 than the seasonal flu or pneumonia, assuming 150,000 coronavirus deaths this year. Those 25 to 85 are two to four times more likely to die of Covid while those over 85 are about 1.7 times more likely.

As treatments have improved over the course of the pandemic, fewer young people are dying. In late March, Americans over age 75 made up about half of all weekly deaths (see chart nearby) while those under 45 made up between four and five percent. Now those over 75 make up about two-thirds of deaths while those younger than 45 make up less than 2%.
Older people generally have weaker immune systems and more have underlying respiratory and cardiovascular conditions that appear to exacerbate the illness. More than 95% of people who have died in the United Kingdom had at least one underlying condition. Italian public-health officials have also reported that 96% of deaths involved one chronic condition, and 60% had three or more.
Nursing homes are especially vulnerable because they have large numbers of elderly in cramped quarters. They now account for more than 50% of Covid-19 fatalities in 30 or so states, including Arizona, Washington, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts.
The good news is that most people over age 65 who are in generally good health are unlikely to die or get severely ill from Covid-19. Data from Spain’s national antibody study show that about 92% of those infected from ages 60 to 79 have mild or no symptoms, and only about 6% are hospitalized. Three-quarters of people older than 90 have mild or no symptoms and fewer than 10% die.
Governments can keep down health-care utilization even while letting their economies mostly reopen by protecting vulnerable seniors—for instance, by allocating more protective equipment to nursing homes and frequently testing workers.
This is what Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been doing, and the Sunshine State last month had about a third as many new hospitalizations per capita as New York, which remained mostly shut down. Lifting lockdowns doesn’t have to result in a repeat of the March rampages through nursing homes.

WALL STREET JOURNAL