Friday, July 24, 2020

Pete's Comments: USDA report disappointing

Pete Crow

The long-awaited USDA report on the Tyson Fire in Holcomb, KS, and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has been released. If you’re looking for a smoking gun, you’re not going to like the USDA report.
The Boxed Beef & Fed Cattle Price Spreads Investigation report is more of a recap of events that took place. Both events caused a disruption in the supply chain, and fed cattle that were ready for slaughter weren’t able to be processed. Then cattle inventory built up and an oversupply was created, and the market responded. An instantaneous drop in packer demand, or ability, forced prices of fed cattle down. It’s that simple...
...Price discovery was discussed in the report and referred to Livestock Mandatory Reporting (LMR) and improved price discovery. I think price discovery is pretty well settled for feeder cattle markets, since most sell at auction. But for fed cattle, it’s different. We have the futures market as an indicator and the negotiated fed cash trade. The report recognizes that some of the five reporting areas are unable to report transactions because of confidentiality. For instance, in Colorado JBS and Cargill are the only players and reporting trade would not be masked as intended.
It has been suggested that LMR change the reporting areas to include at least three competing packers, like expanding Colorado to include the West Coast. They also report that there has been some discussion about the concept of creating and compensating a pool of negotiated cash market traders. I’m not sure how that would work.
The LMR program collects a lot of relevant data. Knowing how to read that data can be challenging. LMR needs to be reauthorized by Sept. 30 of this year. The industry should determine what combination of data would be more useful. LMR could interpret that data better.
Roughly 60 percent of packer-to-retail sales are sold on a formula. Wouldn’t a base price for those formula trades be worth knowing? Is there a premium paid to producers for delivering cattle outside the 21-day window? The data must be there, but it must be presented to industry more clearly. Industry groups should get their wish list together soon and present it to the Agricultural Marketing Service...


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