Why Maricopa County will choose the next president

GLENDALE, Ariz. — The path to the White House runs straight through an elementary school playfield here, where on a recent Saturday morning a plane paid for by the Democratic National Committee drags a banner urging parents watching their kids play soccer to vote. Those parents, and the other 4.7 million residents in Maricopa County, are at the epicenter of the battle for the White House. For the first time in decades, the largest county in this ordinarily conservative swing state has become an urgent priority for both Democrats and Republicans. No single media market has attracted more political advertising spending than have television stations in Phoenix. The fulcrum, the voters who will decide how this state — and the nation — tilts Tuesday, are the growing number of suburbanites in the rapidly expanding developments that have sent Maricopa County’s population skyrocketing. They come in search of inexpensive housing, good-paying jobs in the growing tech sector, and the year-round sun for golf-loving retirees. “We don’t build up, we build out,” said Mike Noble, a Phoenix-based pollster. “Outside of the urban core of Phoenix, it’s pretty much a giant suburb.” Four years ago, Maricopa County was the largest county in the U.S. that President Trump carried. He won here by 45,000 votes in 2016, or about 3 percentage points, in an election in which registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats by 150,000. Four years later, Trump’s path to winning Arizona’s electoral votes once again is considerably more difficult. Since 2016, 200,000 new residents have moved in. The GOP’s voter registration edge has been cut by 50,000. In the 2018 midterm elections, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) won Maricopa County by 60,000 votes. This year, Democrats are contesting seven state legislative districts across the region, from the wealthy suburbs in Chandler to more working-class neighborhoods in Peoria and Glendale. “These persuadable voters who have traditionally leaned right are now leaning left,” Noble said.No Democratic presidential candidate has won a majority in Maricopa County since Harry Truman sought reelection in 1948, when President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden were toddlers. But polls show Biden leading here, by margins greater than his statewide advantage. An OH Predictive Insights poll found Biden leading Trump in Maricopa by a 51 percent to 45 percent margin, twice Biden’s advantage in the statewide sample. Maricopa represents about 62 percent of all registered voters in Arizona, and winning here is virtually essential to winning statewide...MORE