Counting Senate votes for conviction

A pretty good summary of where we are right now, from POLITICO Nightly 

   

TRY, TRY AGAIN — Now it’s the Senate’s turn to decide whether President Donald Trump will make history again, this time either as the first president to be removed from office or as the first president to be convicted for impeachable offenses after leaving the White House. In a historic first, Trump was impeached for the second time today.

Mitch McConnell threw the outcome of the Senate trial — and Trump’s future political ambitions — in doubt Tuesday night when he privately indicated that Trump’s actions qualify him for removal from office, according to a source familiar with his thinking. But that doesn’t mean McConnell would vote to convict, congressional reporter Andrew Desiderio told Nightly today. McConnell sent a note to his GOP members this afternoon stating, “I have not made a final decision on how I will vote.”

At the same time, Lindsey Graham has been calling his Republican colleagues in the Senate to urge them against convicting. What happens next? The Nightly chatted over Slack with Andrew about what to watch for in Trump’s second Senate trial, which Andrew expects to start next week when the Senate reconvenes on Jan. 19. This conversation has been edited.

So, wow, this revelation that McConnell thinks the president could be guilty. What is behind that?

McConnell has put up with a lot over the past four years to get what he wants — things like conservative judges and Supreme Court justices, as well as tax cuts and deregulation. He is said to be sick of Trump, especially after the Georgia runoffs. He is looking for the best way to diminish Trump’s influence within the GOP moving forward.

If McConnell votes to convict — which is now more of a possibility than it was before today — then I think it’s nearly certain that 17+ Republicans will vote to convict.

What about Graham’s thinking?

The reality is that the GOP base is still firmly behind Trump. And some Republicans worry that impeaching and convicting Trump would just embolden him. They’re already afraid of Trump-backed primary challenges in 2022 and 2024.

As for the possible 2024 candidates, I’d expect them to ultimately stick with Trump during the trial even as they have condemned the president’s rhetoric leading up to the riots.

It’s quite notable that Graham and McConnell are now taking such different approaches to all of this. I really do think it’s more of a matter of whether Trump is good for the party, especially after so many Republicans blamed him for the Georgia losses.

Last year, Senate Democrats wanted to call witnesses in the impeachment trial while Republicans voted against calling new witnesses. Do you think their positions will be reversed this time around with Democrat Chuck Schumer as majority leader?

It’s a moot point because there was no inquiry in the House this time — no committee hearings, no subpoenas, no witness testimony. In this case, there are no witnesses to call because the entire effort is focused on Trump’s public posture and public statements in the run-up to Jan. 6. House Democrats felt that there was really no investigation that was necessary here and that they had all of the information they needed.

Of course, a single senator could make a motion to hear from a witness. But I would expect that Democrats want to get the trial done as soon as possible in order to clear the schedule for Biden’s Cabinet nominees as well as another Covid-19 relief package.

Any chance that Congress could use the 14th Amendment to bar Trump from running for office again, even without a conviction in a Senate trial?

Not really. I would say it’s too early for that and not really worth addressing yet to be honest.

If you had to place a bet on how many Republicans will vote against Trump, what would you say?

I’ve been burned on these types of predictions in the past, but as of this writing, I would bet that at least five Republican senators vote in favor of conviction. Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski, Ben Sasse, Pat Toomey and Susan Collins are the five, I would say. But it’s really fluid.

If McConnell votes to convict, that number will be much higher. But as of right now, I think it’s safe to say that there will be at least five. But that is well short of the 17 Republicans, plus all 50 Democrats, required for a conviction. I’d put it at, like, a 20 percent chance he gets convicted.

Any not-guilty votes expected on the D side?

Nope, they’re all unified here.