What do cattle and sheep have in common?

 

Cattle cycles stretch as far back as the seven fat, healthy cows and the seven scrawny, thin cows of Biblical times. The seven fat cows foretold seven years of good harvest; everyone would have plenty to eat. However, the seven thin cows meant that seven years of famine would follow. Sheep inventories are cyclical, too.

The Jan. 1 U.S. inventory of all sheep and lambs totaled 5.03 million head. This is the smallest sheep and lamb inventory ever. USDA provides the series back to 1867.

All U.S. cattle and calves on Jan. 1 totaled 87.16 million head. This is the smallest inventory of cattle and calves since 1951. The 28.22 million beef cows are the smallest since 1961. Despite fewer cows, beef production per cow continues to rise.

Both cattle and sheep industries have distinct growth and liquidation cycles. Inventory cycles are measured from one trough to the next. The current cattle cycle and sheep cycle began in 2014. Both entered their 10th year in 2024.Sheep and cattle have similar nine- to 14-year inventory cycles. Cycles result from lagged responses created by both biological and economic phenomena. 

One might expect sheep to exhibit shorter inventory cycles than cattle because of shorter gestation (about 147 days for sheep versus 283 for cattle), multiple births or twinning, and shorter time from birth to market. These production characteristics apparently do not create a shorter sheep inventory cycle. Weather abnormalities often initiate or modify livestock inventory cycles.

Cycle length in both species has generally shortened over time. Amplitude of cyclical inventory changes has also decreased. Several factors may contribute...more